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The Stein legacy
If you want to understand why economic growth has been “shrinking” for more than one year Read Leaning, then toppling (by Ryan Avent, March 2014): IF YOU want to know why the Federal Reserve is...
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Time for another US recession: is there a killer on the loose?
A James Alexander post Every time I see the chart for US unemployment these days it looks like it is time for the trend to turn. Economies move in cycles and it sure looks like it’s time for this cycle...
View ArticleNick Rowe´s wish for 2016
That we have a basic, or minimalist, understanding of recessions: Recessions are not about output and employment and saving and investment and borrowing and lending and interest rates and time and...
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The “plunging economy”
What to make of these trends? Do they justify the “recession mania” that is taking shape? The Fed clings to the only thing that is not plunging!
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Usefulness of “lagging indicators”
That may be the role of industrial production growth presented as YoY growth of the 6-month moving average. Note that it only turns negative after a recession (as defined by the NBER) has already...
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Contractions & Expansions with Asset (Stocks) Prices Included
The expansion just registered its 7th birthday, but: Even seven years after the recession ended, the current stretch of economic gains has yielded less growth than much shorter business cycles. And...
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Recession & Recovery: Is a rebound likely?
From March 12, 2009 Recently there was a heated debate involving, on one side Greg Mankiw and, on the other, Krugman and Brad DeLong. The spat revolved around the CEA deficit projection based on the...
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The usefulness of underlying, or core, rates
It is the case, instead, of not missing the trees for the forest. The case for core inflation, for example, is well established, but not always understood. The charts below show that sometimes the...
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Toying with business cycle dating
In this year´s ASSA Annual Meeting in January, Christina & David Romer (R&R) presented “NBER Business Cycle Dating: Retrospect and Prospect”: “…Our most substantial proposal is that the NBER...
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Irony alert: The Fed has been doing AIT for three decades!
As I will show, it has also been doing NGDP-LT, albeit with a “variable” Level Trend. It´s amazing that it took them one and a half years to come up with a framework that had been in place for so long!...
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